2025 Predictions
Predictions for 2025-
There will be even MORE weird finishes. Frankly I’m exhausted by them all, but the brands aren’t.
Brands media marketing will continue to shift towards “lifestyle brand” advertising. You’re already seeing glimpses of it, but watch, you’ll see less “bottle pics” and more dudes in cowboy hats holding that bottle by a fire or in the woods, or at a picnic table…
There will be a larger focus on collectors from the major distilleries. Heaven Hill has been wildly successful with their decanter Old Fitzgerald’s, same with Whistlepig and their piggy bank 1 liter decanter. Beam just recently announced before this posts that the Beam Pin’s are coming back. These are not meant for the mass market, these are meant for the hardcore collectors who can’t seem to throw away a cardboard box, cardboard tube, or wood particle board box. Auctions that include the original stupid packaging always go for more. Fun fact- I sold a Master’s keep via Unicorn auction that I had mistakenly mixed up the bottle with the incorrect box. Unicorn noticed and noted it on the listing, and it didn’t make a difference in the closing price.
There will be even more insulting celebrity whiskey releases. And here comes Eli….
There will be continued contraction in the industry. More closures, more acquisitions, more bankruptcies, more insolvency, and more barrel investors underwater on their loans/value. Expect some sell offs to the barrel markets, and some great opportunities for brands with cash on hand (and there are more than a few that have cash!).
There will be MORE, not less, premium priced limited edition releases from ALL brands. This is a growth area right now, and one of the few levers they can move to juice profits. Expect to see older age stated releases from Buffalo Trace who have more incentive than ever to release a 2-4yr older version of something that’s already allocated.
There will also be more accessible older age stated whiskey from NDP’s like Redemption, and Templeton, at a fair price.
Whiskey social media will become even less interesting than it was in 2024. We lost so much character in the community over the last two years. We continue to see the spotlight shift from curious exploration, creativity, and actual art, to “expertise” which has led to gatekeeping and repetition. It’s so stale. We lost the novelty of wide eyed discovery, for the sake of being cute, or having a shtick. We lost the oddballs doing oddball things and sharing what they learned along the way. A recent episode of Bourbon Pursuit (which is barely listenable anymore) mentioned Crazy Naz of all people and they too noticed the loss of characters in the community. Everyone is a reviewer, everyone an expert, the takes are soft and weak for fear of alienating a marketing team and losing the “access.” People aren’t trustworthy anymore, because they’re being paid and you don’t know it, because they don’t disclose.
I might take Castle and Key off of the acquisition watch. While I believe it’s a very attractive property, I think it’s one of those places that will have a very limited amount of purchasers that it will appeal to. Kind of like a custom mansion with indoor tennis and basketball courts. It will have to be just right, for just the right buyer, and right now, I don’t think there is a single major distillery that needs MORE distilling capacity or rick space. When practically half of your distilling capacity is contract, your brand hasn’t caught on enough to husband those runs for yourself, would any major need the actual still? Beam once owned the property, and they closed it because even then they didn’t need the capacity or storage. I hope they survive, and they likely will because it’s becoming an event destination, but man, the margins must be thin.
More people will be celebrating the blenders as they continue to learn that the master distillers aren’t wholly responsible for what is in the bottle. You’re going to hear the names of Sean Josephs, and many others this year.
Also, more people will come to realize that high proof isn’t everything. More folks will come around to the idea that there is no one true proof for enjoyment. The Overholt 11yr cask strength wasn’t high proof. Angels Envy put out a 100pf cask strength release that was fabulous. More appreciation will come for the 90-105 proof range. I also think this will benefit Michter’s more than anyone else.
The Buffalo Bills will be in San Francisco for the Super Bowl, but the X-Files curse will remain in full effect.
The Buffalo Sabres will still stink, and will end up trading their best player for future draft capital, as they often do.
- Mickey Pinstripe