2024 Predictions score card

Here’s the scorecard on some predictions I made for the year. I held off on posting until the last one listed was official.

• Prediction- There will be more strange finished whiskey releases. I fear that there is no end in sight to the never ending race to be the wackiest craft beer whiskey producer.

  I’d say that this was mostly correct. We got some wild things, especially the last quarter of the year. We saw some Mizunara’s, and lots of Amburana.

• Prediction- There will be layoffs at several distilleries as they reorganize, merge, or wind down operations in a very expensive business.

  Sadly, we got this one correct. I hate to see it. So many sales teams were shitcanned, and brand reps too. Horrible for the industry.

• Prediction- Marketing budgets will be reduced at many of the major brands as consumer tastes shift, so will the producers move their money towards those folks.

  We saw scaled down brand participation at Bourbon Festivals outside of Kentucky (a traveling one even cut their dates in HALF), and even Tales of the Cocktail brand activations felt scaled back too (lots of obviously old merch was distributed). A lot of small brands in portfolios lost their budget to other growing brands.

• Prediction- The expansion of non-alcoholic drinks both on premise and off.

  Boy oh boy was this ever right? The expansion of no and low, and THC products has been incredible with no end in sight.

• Prediction- Acquisitions will continue, but I think Castle and Key will be the largest domino to fall soonest.

  Several big buys happened, but I’m gonna take half a loss here, as Castle and Key is still standing independent.

• Prediction- American single malt will grow, but it will not be the next big thing.

  It did attain its own category finally, but no, it still will not be the next big thing.

• Prediction- There will be two new Weller’s and Taylors, for no real reason other than they can, and will take your last dollar.

  Well, there were two new Weller’s. So a tie?

• Prediction- There will be more “Bourbon Drinkers Ryes” and they’ll be good, but it’ll make me a bit sad, as Rye doesn’t need to be dumbed down with that marketing phrase to make people try it.

  Can I claim the Win here simply because of Knob Creek Bourbon*Rye release?

• Prediction- There will continue to be a flood of whatever junk MGP has sitting in the basement from various NDP’s, which will command a premium and people will pay it.

  The jury is out so far, so I’ll take the loss and recycle this prediction for 2025, I think I was premature on this one.

• Prediction- Micro distilleries are going to release very good aged Rye’s that will blow everyone’s minds. (Did you know, Union Horse put out a ten year rye this year?).

  They did, and damn if Redwood Empire didn’t lead the pack.

• Prediction-The Buffalo Sabres will still stink.

  They do. Last place in the Atlantic as of this writing.

• Because of Cancer Man, the Bills will still never win a Super Bowl.

  The X-Files curse remains undefeated.

- Mickey Pinstripe