The Pappy Effect: Is It Happening Now to Willett?
All of us by now can understand the impact that the Pappy Van Winkle lineup has had upon the Buffalo Trace Distillery. The story is compelling on its own and I won’t bother with a deep look into the history of Pappy so I’ll briefly recap it.
“Pappy” went from a terrific (if you like wheated) series of releases hanging on by a thread, to in-the-know insider status, to hoarded, to infamous, to famous, to coveted, to allocated, to rare/scarce, to unicorn status, to legendary, to secondary champion, to gateway to the whole damn distillery problem.
What is that problem impacting Buffalo Trace? Well, as Pappy continued its inexorable rise to the top of the Bourbon drinkers mindshare, as well as gain in secondary market pricing to go right along with it, some fans began to get priced out of what had once been their favorite drink. Some stuck with the line, spending more and more over the years, but many dropped out, and went looking for something that could satiate their thirst.
The gift shop in 2019 looks much the same as the gift shop in 2022.
Many ended up at the Antique Collection aka “BTAC” and happy days, the “Tracists” found their new love. Any guesses as to what happened? “In-the-know insider status, hoarded, famous, coveted, allocated, rare/scarce, unicorn, legendary, secondary champion…” It’s a tale as old as the text block above. What happened as the cruel story repeated itself?
People got priced out, and went looking for the next thing….. Many of them landed on Weller. About 10 years ago, crafty mad scientists in their home laboratories started to concoct the so-called Poor Man’s Pappy. PMP was at the time, a blend of the still available standard Weller lineup that wasn’t quite Pappy, but it was close enough to have an awful lot of people making it. As the hobbyists naively promoted their recipes online, a lot of other people took notice and started to buy. Not long after, some onliners began referring to Weller 12-year black label as simply “poor man’s Pappy” because it was as old as Lot B so it had to be barely Pappy, thus it must be an adequate replacement for the real thing.
This heinous cycle repeated itself… what was once readily available, became allocated and flippable and priced people right out of their favorite thing AGAIN. Each time a segment of the portfolio became popular, it drew even more people that were interested in Buffalo Trace, adding to the demand, exacerbating the problem. This horrible scenario would continue to play out with Blanton’s, Taylor (the Rye is now approaching $300 on secondary), Elmer, Rock Hill Farms… It’s all become so sad that even their standards like Eagle, and Buffalo Trace Bourbon are now allocated. If you’re a fan of BT, then I apologize for rehashing the unrelenting pain and suffering you all continue to experience.
Tasting tour circa 2019.
Now that we have an understanding of how Pappy eventually impacted the entire line, we can now shift to what my pal Indy described as “Year Round Pappy” aka Willett Family Estate, and how I fear that the Pappy effect is about to take root.
Willett Family Estate is arguably one of the most beautiful and beloved labels in all of Whiskey. If you’re a long time Willett head, then you know that nothing comes close to what they do. It’s so different. From the old KBD sourced releases to their own make, it’s really difficult to get quality like that in any other form.
While the Purple Tops are insanely priced, coveted etc… Willett also makes a pretty good overall lineup of non-family estate releases that are reasonably findable. Johnny Drum, Old Bardstown, NM (YOU don’t talk about this ever!), Rowan’s Creek, Pure Kentucky… Up until this point, the Pappy effect had not applied to really any other distillery. Willett hype has typically remained at the top end, avoiding the spill over into the lower line releases. I think that is about to change.
Even some exceptional fanmade Rye’s invoke the holy ghost of Willett.
I visited Willett in early 2019, and included in the tour was a pour of Willett 5-year Purple Top, two different Willett 6-year Purple Top, NM, and Old Bardstown. Visiting 3-years later, no Purple Tops, just their baseline products. Does that make me mad as a visitor? NO. I’m a Willett head, and I love their low to mid priced offerings and no distillery can continue to offer high-end pours with the volume of visitors zerging into the state like an invading army (over 2 million visitors in 2022!) I’m not worried that a tasting room sample will lead to more people wanting Purple Tops, that ship has sailed. People that have never had one want one, the distillery knows this, no reason to give it away, people are already convinced.
The thing that gave me deep concern is this, while in the gift shop, I saw people purchasing *GASP* Pure Kentucky…. PK has been a solid hitter for me personally for years. Now people are buying it in the gift shop. Today, in my inbox, an email from Seelbach’s exhorting me to purchase Pure Kentucky with this gobbledygook-
“We understand the love and craziness surrounding Willett Family Estate (WFE) bottles. Their sourced products were fantastic. As Willett distilled WFE bottles hit the 6-8 year range they’ve been tasty. Most people don’t realize all Willett Flagship products are distilled by Willett. Distilled and well aged. Today we highlight Pure Kentucky. This is my favorite from the Willett Flagship lineup!
Pure Kentucky is a blend of Bourbon around 6-years old. They don’t disclose the actual age but I was able to confirm that the average age is 6-years. That means it’s a blend of barrels in the 5-7 year range. Willett uses both their OG (72/13/15 Corn/Rye/Malted Barley) and high-rye Bourbon (52/38/10) mash bills. This blend of age and mash creates an incredible mix of brown sugar, tobacco and leather. It has an oily mouth feel with a long rich finish. The 107 prof is plenty of heat to balance out the sweeter notes on the nose. At $45 this is proof that incredible craft whiskey can be available and affordable.”
Now that is some gobbledygook, with some decent nuggets of information.
Here’s the screenshot, so now you can read it twice. That’s what you get for skimming.
As you consider the gobbledygook you just read, take some time and look around at any of your favorite on-liners and check their posts about any of the foundational Willett offerings, and they will generally invoke the connection to the WFE’s. I’ll save you the search, I did it as recently as a year ago, and can date this line of thinking almost to just over 5-years ago here, here, also here, and here, and here again. These sorts of postings toy with your emotions, reminding you how incredimazing the Purple Top is, teasing that you cannot get it, and then directing you to an adequate and available offering to satiate you. A proverbial “here’s a tissue for your issue.”
As the hype gains steam, and these bottles gain more exposure at the distillery, will we begin to see shortages and allocations of our replacements? I’ve been priced out of WFE’s for a number of years now. As this hype gains mindshare amongst the whiskey on-liners, will we all be priced out once more? Will we all have to drop down a level or two, only to repeat this again in another couple years? Will the Pappy Effect finally take hold of a non-BT distillery? Are we all to start stockpiling the foundational bottles now? Time will tell, but I’m dreading the answer. In closing, I’m aware of the irony here, shorts like this being part of the problem and all, and how this conversation might exacerbate things, but it was on my mind, so I shared it with you.
What do you think? Is the Pappy Effect about to impact our beloved Willett? Let me know in the comments, or tell a good joke.
- Mickey Pinstripe